Belgium, expect a multi-notch downgrade in the very near future

“Needless to say, a seven-notch differential prompted a three-notch downgrade for Italy. When there is a 10-notch (Belgium) or even a 9-notch differential (France), expect a multi-notch downgrade in the very near future.”(Kyle Bass)

[Source: Hayman Capital Management, L.P. November 30 Letter, and Moody’s Analytics, Market signals sovereign risk report, November 28]

 

Fggbngzz
¤
rk
¤
za}.
¤
a
¤
zgugf
fkrj`
¤
bmeeg|gfrman
¤
t|khtrgb
¤
a
¤
r`|gg
fkrj`
¤
bksfc|abg
¤
ek|
¤
Mran}&
¤¤
S`gf
¤
r`g|g
¤
mz
¤
a
¤
14
fkrj`
¤
bmeeg|gfrman
¤
(Lgncmwh-
¤
k|
¤
gugf
¤
a
¤
=
fkrj`
¤
bmeeg|gfrman
¤
(E|afjg-.
¤
gptgjr
¤
a
¤
hwnrm
fkrj`
¤
bksfc|abg
¤
mf
¤
r`g
¤
ug|}
¤
fga|
¤
ewrw|g&

 

 

 

 

 

 

BTP day? No grazie

ECCO I 20 MOTIVI PER NON COMPRARE I BTP! → Read More

Will the true lender-of-last-resort stand up?

The classical notion of lender-of-last-resort derives from Henry Thornton (1760–1815) and Walter Bagehot (1826-1877). The phrase “lender-of-last-resort” has been ‘bandied around’ recently by people with an entirely different definition of the term. → Read More

De lokroep en de put

Ik breng u de oorzaak en de oplossing van de crisis in één identiteit. Dezelfde regel die verklaart wanneer een weldenkend Amerikaan zijn hypotheek in de steek kan laten maar een Belg niet, laat ook zien waarom risico goed is voor bankiers en hoe die asymmetrie kan worden verbroken. Of waar de welvaartsstaat spaak loopt en hoe hem weer op de been te helpen. Deze identiteit is alles wat u moét weten over het financiewezen; de rest is commentaar. → Read More

The history of the eurozone in one graph

The price is right?

Dear Santa,

please please bring us the full balance sheet of Dexia Bank Belgium at the sunset of Friday October 7, 2011 and at sunrise on Monday October 10.

Source: Dexia Crédit Local Annual Report 2010

 

Sincerely,

Karel and Nikolaas

PS Could cost you…

Restoring Greece — Argentina redux?

Nouriel Roubini in the Financial Times called upon Greece to default and abandon the euro “to quickly restore competitiveness and growth, as it did in Argentina.”

To be sure, it’s easy to see the Argentina analogy work not only for Greece but for any Eurozone member country. Each of them has a banking system pegged to a de facto foreign currency, and each of their national central banks lacks the capacity to act as a full lender-of-last-resort. But the analogy does not extend much further. → Read More

BS on sovereign credit risk

Today, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi is delivering a speech at the Forum for EU-US Legal-Economic Affairs in Rome. The main subject of Policy rules and institutions in times of crisis is “the risk of a confusion of roles, which may generate moral hazard and ultimately delegitimise the institutions and undermine their credibility.”

The stability of public finances in particular, Bini Smaghi maintains, is based on two mechanisms: the credibility of the fiscal authorities, and the ability of the markets to accurately assess sovereign credit risk. Therein lies the rub… → Read More

België tussen hangen en wurgen

Hoe ons land de kopgroep al een jaar lang moet lossen…

Overigens meen ik dat het EFSF voorbij is, met Italië en Spanje too big to bail - laat staan om zichzelf te redden. Rest nog de sovereign debt swap met de ECB (zie ook het plan van Varoufakis en Holland) waarin de ECB van alle landen een deel van de overheidsschulden overneemt en daarmee “euro-obligaties” uitgeeft.